Live market context

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): range, levels and drivers

Measured, self-checked, and never a buy or sell call.

Data as of 15 Oct, 11:58 UTC (refreshed about every 10 minutes). USDJPY.

Price

157.943

-0.03% today

Expected range - about 80% of past moves stayed within

12h +/-0.69 (0.44%)

24h +/-1.03 (0.65%)

A volatility range, not a direction or a target.

Key levels and structure

Key levels: PDH 158.952 (1.01 above), PDL 157.832 (0.11 below, swept).

Structure (descriptive only): 1h bias bearish, 4h bias bearish. Volatility: normal (ATR 1.28x its recent average). Our back-tests found no reliable directional edge in this reading, so it describes the market and does not predict it.

Macro drivers

Alignment: Headwind for USD/JPY (75% of driver weight points the same way). 5 of 5 drivers have data. A rule-based agreement of drivers, not a forecast.

Upcoming high-impact events

  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core PPI m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 1.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD PPI m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%]
  • 2026-10-16 03:30 UTC (in 15h 31m) - USD Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

What moves USD/JPY in our reading

USD/JPY is closely tied to US yields and to risk sentiment (the yen is a funding and safe-haven currency). The platform reads the dollar, yields, risk appetite and the pair's own momentum, and tracks scheduled US and Japanese releases.

  • US 10Y yield (weight 30): a rise in us 10y yield counts as support.
  • Treasury yields (live proxy) (weight 20): a rise in treasury yields (live proxy) counts as a headwind.
  • Risk appetite (stocks) (weight 15): a rise in risk appetite (stocks) counts as support.
  • Risk barometer (AUD/JPY) (weight 10): a rise in risk barometer (aud/jpy) counts as a headwind.
  • USD/JPY momentum (weight 25): a rise in usd/jpy momentum counts as support.

Do these ranges hold up?

Every few hours we record the range above and check it afterwards. The live result for USD/JPY:

  • 12-hour window: 1 checked so far, 0% stayed inside - too few for a verdict (needs 30).
  • 24-hour window: collecting data (a verdict appears after 30 checked forecasts).

See every market on the calibration scoreboard and how this is built on the methodology page.

Latest USD/JPY analyses

Trading systems for USD/JPY

Browse the full marketplace. Every listing shows the evidence AT24 computed, never a seller-authored claim.

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Read the disclaimer. All markets: live market hubs.