Live market context

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD): range, levels and drivers

Measured, self-checked, and never a buy or sell call.

Data as of 15 Oct, 11:59 UTC (refreshed about every 10 minutes). EURUSD.

Price

1.12079

+0.18% today

Expected range - about 80% of past moves stayed within

12h +/-0.00559 (0.50%)

24h +/-0.00834 (0.74%)

A volatility range, not a direction or a target.

Key levels and structure

Key levels: PDH 1.12115 (0.00036 above, swept), PDL 1.11129 (0.00950 below).

Structure (descriptive only): 1h bias bullish, 4h bias bearish. Volatility: high (ATR 1.51x its recent average). Our back-tests found no reliable directional edge in this reading, so it describes the market and does not predict it.

Macro drivers

Alignment: Mixed (15% of driver weight points the same way). 5 of 5 drivers have data. A rule-based agreement of drivers, not a forecast.

Upcoming high-impact events

  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core PPI m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 1.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD PPI m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%]
  • 2026-10-16 03:30 UTC (in 15h 31m) - USD Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

What moves EUR/USD in our reading

EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair. The platform reads the dollar index, European and US yield context, risk appetite and the pair's own momentum, and tracks scheduled US and euro-area releases that tend to move it.

  • US dollar (weight 30): a rise in us dollar counts as a headwind.
  • Treasury yields (weight 15): a rise in treasury yields counts as support.
  • Risk appetite (stocks) (weight 15): a rise in risk appetite (stocks) counts as support.
  • Risk barometer (AUD/JPY) (weight 10): a rise in risk barometer (aud/jpy) counts as a headwind.
  • EUR/USD momentum (weight 30): a rise in eur/usd momentum counts as support.

Do these ranges hold up?

Every few hours we record the range above and check it afterwards. The live result for EUR/USD:

  • 12-hour window: 2 checked so far, 50% stayed inside - too few for a verdict (needs 30).
  • 24-hour window: collecting data (a verdict appears after 30 checked forecasts).

See every market on the calibration scoreboard and how this is built on the methodology page.

Latest EUR/USD analyses

Trading systems for EUR/USD

Browse the full marketplace. Every listing shows the evidence AT24 computed, never a seller-authored claim.

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Read the disclaimer. All markets: live market hubs.