Live market context

Ethereum (ETH/USD): range, levels and drivers

Measured, self-checked, and never a buy or sell call.

Data as of 15 Oct, 11:58 UTC (refreshed about every 10 minutes). ETHUSD.

Price

2369.43

-2.03% today

Expected range - about 80% of past moves stayed within

12h +/-87.98 (3.71%)

24h +/-131.34 (5.54%)

A volatility range, not a direction or a target.

Key levels and structure

Key levels: PDH 2527.89 (158.46 above), PDL 2399.66 (30.23 above).

Structure (descriptive only): 1h bias bearish, 4h bias bearish. Volatility: high (ATR 1.35x its recent average). Our back-tests found no reliable directional edge in this reading, so it describes the market and does not predict it.

Macro drivers

Alignment: Mixed (40% of driver weight points the same way). 5 of 5 drivers have data. A rule-based agreement of drivers, not a forecast.

Upcoming high-impact events

  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core PPI m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Core Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 1.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD PPI m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 31 min) - USD Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%]
  • 2026-10-16 03:30 UTC (in 15h 31m) - USD Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

What moves Ethereum in our reading

Ethereum trades around the clock and usually moves more than Bitcoin. The platform reads the dollar, risk appetite, yields and ether's own momentum, and measures its typical 12 and 24 hour move. Crypto-class range factors are used for it; they were tested on Bitcoin.

  • Risk appetite (stocks) (weight 25): a rise in risk appetite (stocks) counts as support.
  • US dollar (weight 15): a rise in us dollar counts as a headwind.
  • Real yield (10Y TIPS) (weight 20): a rise in real yield (10y tips) counts as a headwind.
  • Risk barometer (AUD/JPY) (weight 10): a rise in risk barometer (aud/jpy) counts as a headwind.
  • Ethereum momentum (weight 30): a rise in ethereum momentum counts as support.

Do these ranges hold up?

Every few hours we record the range above and check it afterwards. The live result for Ethereum:

  • 12-hour window: 2 checked so far, 50% stayed inside - too few for a verdict (needs 30).
  • 24-hour window: collecting data (a verdict appears after 30 checked forecasts).

See every market on the calibration scoreboard and how this is built on the methodology page.

Latest Ethereum analyses

Trading systems for Ethereum

Browse the full marketplace. Every listing shows the evidence AT24 computed, never a seller-authored claim.

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Read the disclaimer. All markets: live market hubs.