Live market context

Gold (XAU/USD): range, levels and drivers

Measured, self-checked, and never a buy or sell call.

Data as of 15 Oct, 11:58 UTC (refreshed about every 10 minutes). XAUUSD.

Price

4147.64

+0.87% today

Expected range - about 80% of past moves stayed within

12h +/-42.68 (1.03%)

24h +/-63.71 (1.54%)

A volatility range, not a direction or a target.

Key levels and structure

Key levels: PDH 4217.41 (69.77 above), PDL 4073.33 (74.31 below).

Structure (descriptive only): 1h bias bearish, 4h bias bullish. Volatility: normal (ATR 0.99x its recent average). Our back-tests found no reliable directional edge in this reading, so it describes the market and does not predict it.

Macro drivers

Alignment: Supports gold (80% of driver weight points the same way). 5 of 5 drivers have data. A rule-based agreement of drivers, not a forecast.

Upcoming high-impact events

  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 32 min) - USD Core PPI m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 32 min) - USD Core Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 1.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 32 min) - USD PPI m/m [forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%]
  • 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC (in 32 min) - USD Retail Sales m/m [forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%]
  • 2026-10-16 03:30 UTC (in 15h 32m) - USD Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

What moves Gold in our reading

Gold is quoted in US dollars, so the dollar and US interest rates matter more to it than to most assets. The platform reads five drivers - real yields, the dollar index, Treasury yields, a risk-off barometer and gold's own momentum - and reports how many point the same way. It also measures how far gold typically moves over the next 12 and 24 hours and checks that statement against what happened.

  • Real yield (10Y TIPS) (weight 30): a rise in real yield (10y tips) counts as a headwind.
  • US dollar (weight 20): a rise in us dollar counts as a headwind.
  • Treasury yields (weight 15): a rise in treasury yields counts as support.
  • Risk barometer (AUD/JPY) (weight 10): a rise in risk barometer (aud/jpy) counts as a headwind.
  • Gold momentum (weight 25): a rise in gold momentum counts as support.

Do these ranges hold up?

Every few hours we record the range above and check it afterwards. The live result for Gold:

  • 12-hour window: 3 checked so far, 67% stayed inside - too few for a verdict (needs 30).
  • 24-hour window: collecting data (a verdict appears after 30 checked forecasts).

See every market on the calibration scoreboard and how this is built on the methodology page.

Latest Gold analyses

Trading systems for Gold

Browse the full marketplace. Every listing shows the evidence AT24 computed, never a seller-authored claim.

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Read the disclaimer. All markets: live market hubs.